Title:
Alternative Aviation Fuels: Assessment of Supply Potential in the EU
Author(s):
Prussi, M., O'Connell, A., Lonza, L.
Document(s):
Paper
Abstract:
The significant growth of the aviation sector over recent decades has increased the pressure of the sector on the environment and on the role it is expected to play in meeting the international climate targets set forth in the 2015 Paris Agreement. With no mandatory targets for emissions reduction, air operators in Europe and worldwide have conducted several pilot actions demonstrating their interest in using ASTM-certified drop-in biofuels, to move towards complying with the industry-wide aspirational goal of carbon-neutral growth as of 2020 and halving of emissions by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels).Reliable assessments of the likely supply of biojet in the EU are a challenging task, partly due to the uncertainty surrounding the relevant policy and normative debate at EU and international scale, and partly due to the economic viability of aviation biofuels. Europe is a world leader in biofuel production technologies, with several commercial-size plants currently in production. The current ASTM-compliant biojet production potential in the EU relies on a small number of plants, accounting for approximately 2 million tonnes per year. Large investments in new biojet production in the EU do not appear as a priority for major fuel producers considering both existing ASTM-certified pathways and application for new pathways in the ASTM certification process. Today, the largest potential share of EU biojet is based on the hydrotreated esters of fatty acids (HEFA) process. The generic term “green diesel” (GD) is the main product of biorefineries using vegetable and/or animal lipid feedstocks. The entire cut of GD is potentially suitable for use in aviation but today it is still not ASTM-certified: HEFA biojet is obtained by green diesel fractionation. It is reasonable to assume that the real biokerosene cut from HEFA process accounts for a lower share of the Green Diesel production (e.g. 15%), thus a lower figure has been considered in the analysis. By 2020 the situation may change significantly, with both the announced entry into service of new facilities, and the scaling-up of existing facilities in the EU. Nonetheless EU fuel producers appear more focused on new investments outside European territory. In this current scenario of uncertainty, significant investments into other ASTM-certified pathways (e.g. ATJ and SIP) are not a priority for major industrial players, although new actors are expected to become active on the market after 2020. The analysis presented in this article is carried out on EU regional scale: considering the global scope of the aviation industry, it is in fact more likely that the final product will be uplifted close to its place of production rather than transported (although feedstocks could be traded once demand for aviation biojet will support larger production volumes). Even if the production potential appears large enough to support potential biojet demand, concerns arise on the availability of sustainable feedstocks. Biojet production processes can be fed with feedstocks that are subject to sustainability constraints, both in the EU and globally. Additionally, feedstocks which comply with sustainability requirements, such as Used Cooking Oil and tallow for the HEFA process are already in demand and in use by the road fuel sector for FAME and green diesel production. A direct competition between road and aviation can thus be expected in coming years; prices for biofuels have been, and will continue to be a crucial aspect for a real market uptake of biofuels in the aviation sector. This paper aims to highlight the status of the EU biojet supply potential, opening up the discussion on the availability of sustainable feedstocks to cover the potential EU-domestic demand towards the year 2030 and competing demand with other transport modes.
Keywords:
biofuel, aviation, biojet, green diesel
Topic:
Industry Sessions
Subtopic:
Policy
Event:
26th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
IBO.8.1
Pages:
1512 - 1515
ISBN:
978-88-89407-18-9
Paper DOI:
10.5071/26thEUBCE2018-IBO.8.1
Price:
FREE
